If the Iran deal had not been cancelled, would we have seen another large scale war in the region between Israel, Syria and Iran? With the nuclear agreement between Iran and Western allies off the table, the question is whether Israel is likely to back off the upcoming war between Israel and Iran. With the scrapping of the deal, this war may be avoided and Syria able to, at last, see some peace.
Many believe that Israel would not have backed down from escalating the situation in Syria if Iran stayed as strong as it would have been, with the Iran deal. For those who hope for peace for the Syrian population, the Trump decision may be interpreted as a further deescalation on Syrian soil.
It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran deal will be upheld. Israel fears a strong Iran in the region, a country that repeatedly has vowed to annihilate Israel – if it had the chance to. New economic sanctions against Iran spell new internal pressure in the country, probably also the wished for consequence in Washington.
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President Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. was withdrawing from the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, and that it would reinstate the punitive sanctions suspended under the 2015 accord. The sanctions cover a range of of industries – from transportation and petroleum to insurance and finance – and will gradually come back into force over next six months. It is not clear whether Mr. Trump’s decision will lead to a collapse of the agreement, which involves Iran and five other countries.
Trump said the 2015 agreement, which included Germany, France, Russia, China and Britain, was a “horrible one-sided deal that should never ever have been made.” Trump said that his explosive move would signal “the United States no longer makes empty threats” on the world stage. “When I make promises, I keep them,” he said. Responding to the move, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has lobbied against the deal, said he offered his full support for Trump’s “bold move.”
The mood in Israel, today the strongest nation in the Middle East, yet also a nation that in history has seen its population nearly extinct in the Holocaust, is quite jumpy about Iran and the steady flow of promises to annihilate Israel.
If you really want enemies, that’s the way to get them. Iran, being a country with its own internal strife, needs an outer enemy to unify its own ranks, has nonetheless been very explicit about the dislike towards Israel. We assume Israel won the fight in this round, as the Iran deal now seems to be off the table. The alternative to scrapping the Iran deal, would have been open war with Iran on Syrian soil.
Yet, with the effective missile defence system that Syria now have, recently displayed as Syria shot down almost all of the US missiles in the recent US led attack, Israel must be more careful with its steady attacks on Syrian soil.
Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz warned on Monday that Israel would eliminate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he continues to allow Iranian forces to operate in his country. “If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military base to be used against us, to attack us from Syrian soil, he needs to know that it will be his end,” the security cabinet member told the Ynet website in an interview.
If the Iran deal had not been cancelled, we would have seen another large scale war in the region between Israel, Syria and Iran. With the scrapping, this war may be avoided and Syria able to, at last, see some peace.
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